In my last post, I detailed the 10 places (what a high number!) that the Cubs could stand to upgrade by merely getting an average player. Those 10 places were:
1. Centerfielder
2. Third baseman
3. Ace Pitcher
4. Rightfielder
5. Ace reliever (closer)
6. #2 pitcher
7. #3 pitcher
8. Fireman reliever
9. Utility infielder
10. Utility outfielder
What have the Cubs done to fix these positions?
1. Centerfielder
Last year, the Cubs primary infielder was, believe it or not, Reed Johnson. He provided 1.0 WAR before being traded, and afterwards a timeshare of DeJesus, Jackson, and Campana brought the season to a close. The Cubs so far have decided to move DeJesus to CF full-time, which will provide 1 additional WAR over last season. DeJesus is projected to have 2 WAR, but the league average at CF is 3; while the Cubs have probably improved, they still have some work to do in this area.
2. Third baseman
The Cubs have had a forced hand as far as 3B is concerned; there were only a few options available, and none of them ideal (Youkilis, Chavez, Keppinger). In the end, they just re-signed the oft-injured Ian Stewart and are ready to roll the dice with some permutation of him and Valbuena at the hot corner. I'm not convinced Stewart will provide much more than a single WAR; on the other hand, I don't know how reasonable it is to have expected more from this position. All 3 3B are huge injury risks, and none of them are going to put you over the top or be here when you expect to be, so you might as well sign the cheaper in-house version of Chavez.
3. Ace Pitcher
The Cubs haven't really signed a true #1 this offseason but only because there are only two available. Greinke was #7 in baseball this year, and signed with the Dodgers. Sanchez was 22nd in the league this year, and the Cubs haven't really been rumored in play with him so far. He'd fit the bill for sure, though. The other way to "fix" this is to develop Shark into a #1 pitcher, which is possible but not certain. I'd really like the Cubs to sign Sanchez, and I'd be willing to give him a very long deal for it.
4. Rightfielder
This problem was exacerbated when the Cubs decided to move DeJesus to center (where he still isn't valuable enough). The Cubs gave Schierholtz the starting job this off-season; he provided 1.5 WAR last year and this year I expect him to do the same. He have not really addressed this problem at all, but the options to do so via free agency are little and less.
5. Ace reliever (closer)
The Cubs addressed this already, by signing Kyuji Fujikawa. He's got the coolest name in the MLB, and I also think he's good for 1 WAR. Funky deliveries from Asian relievers are always good the first year, even if they aren't good afterwards. Think of Shingo Takatsu or Koji Uehara; he doesn't throw like either of those guys, but even Takatsu was good his first year. This is the first problem the Cubs had that I think they legitimately solved, and the potential for a lot of surplus value here exists as well.
6. #2 pitcher
If the Cubs sign Sanchez, they fix this problem by way of making Shark the #2 (a role in which he would already be above-average). It's another in a long line of reasons the Cubs should sign Anibal. The Cubs' contingency if Shark is the de facto ace, is putting Garza in this role, where I expect (if healthy) he'd be a legitimate #2 option. I project him for 3 WAR. Feldman also has a chance to grab 3 WAR and be a #2 option if he'd stay healthy.
7. #3 pitcher
If the Cubs sign Sanchez, Matt Garza is the #3 pitcher on the Cubs. If this was the rate, that would be a GREAT sign that the Cubs would be a strong pitching team (at least on paper). As it stands, Feldman or Baker would fall into that role. Both have a good shot at 2.5 WAR, and I'd like to depend on only one of them.
8. Fireman reliever
The Cubs missed out on Grilli this offseason, who would have fit into this role nicely. The signing of Fujikawa puts this role squarely in Marmol's hands, but Marmol will be traded this offseason almost certainly. I'd like the Cubs to sign another very good reliever; do that (and sign Sanchez), and you could make a case for the Cubs' staff to be not just average but with upside to be legitimately above average.
9. Utility outfielder
10. Utility infielder
These guys are not super important, but we still haven't really acquired them. One hopes that the addition of Schierholtz means that one of Campana or Sappelt can be a serviceable 5th outfielder, but that only works if Soriano isn't traded; if he is, you're counting on both of them. The infielder isn't even on the periphery right now.
In summary, the Cubs haven't really fixed their outfield issues, and it'll get a lot worse if/when Soriano is traded. If they miss out on Sanchez, they'll also have made a few risky bets to cover the starters. Third base is still a black hole, however unavoidable, but the bullpen has at least been slightly upgraded. The Cubs still have a lot of work to do if they want to be truly, truly competitive.
Showing posts with label theory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label theory. Show all posts
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Anatomy of the 2012 Cubs
C 2.0 [1.2]
1B 2.0 [1.8]
2B 2.5 [2.5]
SS 2.5 [3.3]
3B 2.8 [0.9]
RF 2.7 [1.7]
CF 3.0 [1.0]
LF 2.5 [4.0]
C2 [0.5] [0.5]
O4 [0.5] [0.6]
O5 [0.5] [-2.1]
I5 [0.5] [0.7]
I6 [0.5] [0.0]
Position: 22.5 [16.0]
SP 4.5 [3.3]
SP 2.7 [2.1]
SP 2.0 [1.4]
SP 1.3 [1.2]
SP 0.6 [0.7]
RP 1.5 [0.7]
RP 1.0 [0.6]
RP 0.7 [0.2]
RP 0.5 [0.1]
RP 0.4 [0.1]
RP 0.2 [0.1] RP 0.1 [0.0]
Pitching: 15.5 [10.5]
26.5 + 43 = 69.5 wins from 25-man roster
This makes sense, to me. This 25-man roster probably played 80% of all innings this year, so 26.5 * .8 = 21.2 wins, which when you add to 43 gives you 64 wins, within my tolerance for 61 actual wins. This of course assumes a complete replacement sum of 0 from our non-opening 25; this is a dubious proposition at the very best (and likely the main driver as to why we won 61 instead of 64 - our replacement pitching was embarassingly below replacement).
The main things I take from this is that the Cubs last year lacked an ace pitcher, a competent bullpen, a third baseman, a proper right and centerfielder, a third baseman, a 5th outfielder, and a 6th infielder. These are things we already knew, but now I can kind of order them by need:
1. Centerfielder
2. Third baseman
3. Ace Pitcher
4. Rightfielder
5. Ace reliever (closer)
6. #2 pitcher
7. #3 pitcher
8. Fireman reliever
9. Utility infielder
10. Utility outfielder
Though the 5th outfielder is technically the largest gap in WAR, I am assuming that replacement level players are plentiful (because they are).
In the next post, I'll see how the Cubs are addressing these 10 needs (if they are at all).
1B 2.0 [1.8]
2B 2.5 [2.5]
SS 2.5 [3.3]
3B 2.8 [0.9]
RF 2.7 [1.7]
CF 3.0 [1.0]
LF 2.5 [4.0]
C2 [0.5] [0.5]
O4 [0.5] [0.6]
O5 [0.5] [-2.1]
I5 [0.5] [0.7]
I6 [0.5] [0.0]
Position: 22.5 [16.0]
SP 4.5 [3.3]
SP 2.7 [2.1]
SP 2.0 [1.4]
SP 1.3 [1.2]
SP 0.6 [0.7]
RP 1.5 [0.7]
RP 1.0 [0.6]
RP 0.7 [0.2]
RP 0.5 [0.1]
RP 0.4 [0.1]
RP 0.2 [0.1] RP 0.1 [0.0]
Pitching: 15.5 [10.5]
26.5 + 43 = 69.5 wins from 25-man roster
This makes sense, to me. This 25-man roster probably played 80% of all innings this year, so 26.5 * .8 = 21.2 wins, which when you add to 43 gives you 64 wins, within my tolerance for 61 actual wins. This of course assumes a complete replacement sum of 0 from our non-opening 25; this is a dubious proposition at the very best (and likely the main driver as to why we won 61 instead of 64 - our replacement pitching was embarassingly below replacement).
The main things I take from this is that the Cubs last year lacked an ace pitcher, a competent bullpen, a third baseman, a proper right and centerfielder, a third baseman, a 5th outfielder, and a 6th infielder. These are things we already knew, but now I can kind of order them by need:
1. Centerfielder
2. Third baseman
3. Ace Pitcher
4. Rightfielder
5. Ace reliever (closer)
6. #2 pitcher
7. #3 pitcher
8. Fireman reliever
9. Utility infielder
10. Utility outfielder
Though the 5th outfielder is technically the largest gap in WAR, I am assuming that replacement level players are plentiful (because they are).
In the next post, I'll see how the Cubs are addressing these 10 needs (if they are at all).
Anatomy of an Average Team
In FanGraphs, a "replacement-level" team would win 43 games. That is to say, a team that is only comprised of AAA fodder, talent freely available to any team, would expect to win that amount. I wondered, then, how a team could take that and be average.
I looked at the FanGraphs leaders at each position this year and took adjusted the innings to qualify until I got as close 30 members at each position as I could. Then, I took the median WAR to simulate a team that just so happened to have the most average team possible, and this is what I came up with:
C 2.0
1B 2.0
2B 2.5
SS 2.5
3B 2.8
RF 2.7
CF 3.0
LF 2.5
C2 [0.5]
O4 [0.5]
O5 [0.5]
I5 [0.5]
I6 [0.5]
Position: 22.5
SP 4.5
SP 2.7
SP 2.0
SP 1.3
SP 0.6
RP 1.5
RP 1.0
RP 0.7
RP 0.5
RP 0.4
RP 0.2
RP 0.1
Pitching: 15.5
38 wins + 43 replacement wins = 81 wins.
Keep in mind, I guessed the win contributions for the bench, but it seems accurate to me.
In the future, I'd like to use this as a guide to diagnose our team strengths and weaknesses, but you can clearly see where some them start to manifest.
A neat thing that seems counterintuitive at first is how weak 1B are at the moment. This is, I believe due to the positional adjustment playing first base has right now. There just aren't a lot of elite offensive forces that can only play 1B. Most offensive titans right now also enjoy the ability to play CF or 2B or some other position on the field (and any of them are vastly more difficult than 1B).
Keep in mind, also, that DH's aren't represented here. There are very few "true" DHs, and since is the is a back-of-the-napkin exercise anyway, I'm not especially worried.
I looked at the FanGraphs leaders at each position this year and took adjusted the innings to qualify until I got as close 30 members at each position as I could. Then, I took the median WAR to simulate a team that just so happened to have the most average team possible, and this is what I came up with:
C 2.0
1B 2.0
2B 2.5
SS 2.5
3B 2.8
RF 2.7
CF 3.0
LF 2.5
C2 [0.5]
O4 [0.5]
O5 [0.5]
I5 [0.5]
I6 [0.5]
Position: 22.5
SP 4.5
SP 2.7
SP 2.0
SP 1.3
SP 0.6
RP 1.5
RP 1.0
RP 0.7
RP 0.5
RP 0.4
RP 0.2
RP 0.1
Pitching: 15.5
38 wins + 43 replacement wins = 81 wins.
Keep in mind, I guessed the win contributions for the bench, but it seems accurate to me.
In the future, I'd like to use this as a guide to diagnose our team strengths and weaknesses, but you can clearly see where some them start to manifest.
A neat thing that seems counterintuitive at first is how weak 1B are at the moment. This is, I believe due to the positional adjustment playing first base has right now. There just aren't a lot of elite offensive forces that can only play 1B. Most offensive titans right now also enjoy the ability to play CF or 2B or some other position on the field (and any of them are vastly more difficult than 1B).
Keep in mind, also, that DH's aren't represented here. There are very few "true" DHs, and since is the is a back-of-the-napkin exercise anyway, I'm not especially worried.
Where Did the Cubs' Wins Come From?
Last year, the Cubs won 61 games and lost 101. That poor performance was "good" enough to grab us the 2nd pick in the draft next year; however, I'm not keen on a repeat performance next year. One way to diagnose where are problems were last year is to go by position and see where we got those 61 wins.
I'm going to use FanGraphs WAR for these calculations.
C: We had 6 different backstops this year, the most competent of which was Welington Castillo.
Castillo 1.2
Soto 0.5
Recker 0.2
Hill -0.1
Lalli -0.4
Clevenger -0.7
Total: 0.7 WAR
1B: Both Lalli and Baker got some time at 1B, but to avoid counting them twice I'm omitting them from the first base calculations.
Rizzo 1.8
LaHair 0.7
Total: 2.5 WAR
2B: Barney was the primary second basemen this year, but I'm also classifying the UTIL Cardenas here, as he spent the bulk of his little time here.
Barney 2.5
Cardenas -0.2
DeWitt -0.4
Total: 1.9 WAR
SS: This one is really easy!
Castro 3.3
Total: 3.3 WAR
3B: Valbuena takes a below-average performance from Valbuena and turns into something putrid.
Valbuena 0.9
Stewart 0.1
Vitters -1.2
Total: -0.2 WAR
That's the infield wrapup: .7 + 2.5 + 1.9 + 3.3 - .2 = 8.2 WAR, or about one Buster Posey.
RF: The Cubs actually squeezed a lot of value from RF, considering. Again, LaHair saw time here but I counted him as a primary 1B.
DeJesus 1.7
Johnson 1.0
Sappelt 0.9
Baker 0.0
Total: 3.6 WAR
CF: This was a total disaster. "Super" Joe Mather was a sleeper agent for the Reds or something.
Campana 0.6
Jackson 0.2
Byrd -0.8
Mather -1.5
Total: -1.5 WAR
LF: This was another easy one. Soriano played 151 games this year, a really nice number.
Soriano 4.0
Total: 4.0 WAR
That's the outfield wrapup: 3.6 - 1.5 + 4.0 = 6.1 WAR, which brings positional players to 14.3 WAR.
Pitching: There was a lot sub-replacement level performances going on in here.
Shark 3.3
Dempster 2.1
Maholm 1.4
Garza 1.2
Russell 0.7
Wood 0.7
Germano 0.6
Camp 0.6
Marmol 0.2
Volstad 0.2
Rusin 0.1
Chapman 0.1
Cabrera 0.1
Maine 0.0
Berken 0.0
Bowden 0.0
Socolovich 0.0
Lopez -0.1
Ascencio -0.1
Wells -0.1
Castillo -0.2
Parker -0.2
Wood -0.3
Coleman -0.3
Raley -0.4
Beliveau -0.4
Corpas -0.5
Hinshaw -0.6
Dolis -0.6
Total: 7.5 WAR
That brings us to 21.8 WAR total. FanGraphs replacement level is 43 wins, so the Cubs (incredibly) overperformed their expected total last year. The were expected to win 65 games, and only won 61.
There are a lot of ways to easily improve our total for next year. I'll include them detail them in another post.
I'm going to use FanGraphs WAR for these calculations.
C: We had 6 different backstops this year, the most competent of which was Welington Castillo.
Castillo 1.2
Soto 0.5
Recker 0.2
Hill -0.1
Lalli -0.4
Clevenger -0.7
Total: 0.7 WAR
1B: Both Lalli and Baker got some time at 1B, but to avoid counting them twice I'm omitting them from the first base calculations.
Rizzo 1.8
LaHair 0.7
Total: 2.5 WAR
2B: Barney was the primary second basemen this year, but I'm also classifying the UTIL Cardenas here, as he spent the bulk of his little time here.
Barney 2.5
Cardenas -0.2
DeWitt -0.4
Total: 1.9 WAR
SS: This one is really easy!
Castro 3.3
Total: 3.3 WAR
3B: Valbuena takes a below-average performance from Valbuena and turns into something putrid.
Valbuena 0.9
Stewart 0.1
Vitters -1.2
Total: -0.2 WAR
That's the infield wrapup: .7 + 2.5 + 1.9 + 3.3 - .2 = 8.2 WAR, or about one Buster Posey.
RF: The Cubs actually squeezed a lot of value from RF, considering. Again, LaHair saw time here but I counted him as a primary 1B.
DeJesus 1.7
Johnson 1.0
Sappelt 0.9
Baker 0.0
Total: 3.6 WAR
CF: This was a total disaster. "Super" Joe Mather was a sleeper agent for the Reds or something.
Campana 0.6
Jackson 0.2
Byrd -0.8
Mather -1.5
Total: -1.5 WAR
LF: This was another easy one. Soriano played 151 games this year, a really nice number.
Soriano 4.0
Total: 4.0 WAR
That's the outfield wrapup: 3.6 - 1.5 + 4.0 = 6.1 WAR, which brings positional players to 14.3 WAR.
Pitching: There was a lot sub-replacement level performances going on in here.
Shark 3.3
Dempster 2.1
Maholm 1.4
Garza 1.2
Russell 0.7
Wood 0.7
Germano 0.6
Camp 0.6
Marmol 0.2
Volstad 0.2
Rusin 0.1
Chapman 0.1
Cabrera 0.1
Maine 0.0
Berken 0.0
Bowden 0.0
Socolovich 0.0
Lopez -0.1
Ascencio -0.1
Wells -0.1
Castillo -0.2
Parker -0.2
Wood -0.3
Coleman -0.3
Raley -0.4
Beliveau -0.4
Corpas -0.5
Hinshaw -0.6
Dolis -0.6
Total: 7.5 WAR
That brings us to 21.8 WAR total. FanGraphs replacement level is 43 wins, so the Cubs (incredibly) overperformed their expected total last year. The were expected to win 65 games, and only won 61.
There are a lot of ways to easily improve our total for next year. I'll include them detail them in another post.
How much value does Alfonso Soriano have?
News broke yesterday that the Cubs talked about swapping Alfonso Soriano for Domonic Brown. At first blush, it seems like a steal for the Cubs. After digging into the numbers, now I'm not so sure...
First, I'd like to try to determine Fonzie's worth. He had an OPS+ of 121 last year, following years of 114 and 104. Soriano only plays around 140 games a year at this point, but he's been more durable than people might imagine. His last season wasn't really fluky at all: his BABIP was exactly his career average, his LD% and HR/FB both at normal levels. It seems as safe as it can be for a player going into his age-37 year that he will be a solid producer. He even plays a passable LF (though BRef hates his defense)!
Fangraphs had Soriano as a 4 WAR player last year, only 1.4 the year before that, and 3.2 the year before that one. I'd say Soriano is a good bet to provide 2.5 WAR next year, and 2 WAR the year aftewards.
If you assume a win on the open market is around $4.5 million dollars, then it stands to reason that a player with 2.5/2 in the toolkit should get right at 2/$20. The Cubs, of course, are paying more than that, but would gladly eat enough of the contract to get that number to 2/$10 for a prospective trade partner.
So, we've established that trading Soriano (and leaving the other team to pick up 2/10) provides the Cubs with about $10 million dollars of surplus value. What sort of prospect could that buy?
If we use this handy guide, we could get a B grade pitcher (by Sickels), or around a 75-100 pitching prospect in baseball (so think the bottom of the Top 200) list. For the Cubs, think a Dillon Maples or Pierce Johnson type (who are B-).
That's a greater return than I would have thought, at first; then I sort of realized how good of a player Soriano has really been. If you strip away his contract, he's been a very productive player (if overpaid). Similar talents on the market (Victorino, Hunter) have gotten bigger deals. Why shouldn't 2 years and 10 million for Soriano be worth a Pierce Johnson type?
If Soriano is worth a prospect in the global 150-200 range, that's about the 5-7 range for an average individual team. Domonic Brown would have been way more than that in 2011 (when he was the #4 prospect in baseball). However, Brown is injury-prone (he hurt his left knee again this year). He spent another unproductive third of a season at the major league level, and did not really dominate in AAA last year (although the IL is the pitcher's league). Brown plays a above-average defense in right, but is a hair below average in centerfield (where he'd presumably play for the Cubs).
All in all, I'd wager Brown is a prospect in the 75-100 range next year, if not a shade lower. That is slightly more expensive than Soriano is worth; however, you're paying for the upside that Soriano could provide (a 3.5 or 4.0 WAR season is easily in his capabilities), and getting a player that fits into the Phillies' tight budget. I'd say a Soriano for Brown swap works for both sides, and if we have to throw in a C-level prospect or two to make that happen, I'm very fine with that too.
First, I'd like to try to determine Fonzie's worth. He had an OPS+ of 121 last year, following years of 114 and 104. Soriano only plays around 140 games a year at this point, but he's been more durable than people might imagine. His last season wasn't really fluky at all: his BABIP was exactly his career average, his LD% and HR/FB both at normal levels. It seems as safe as it can be for a player going into his age-37 year that he will be a solid producer. He even plays a passable LF (though BRef hates his defense)!
Fangraphs had Soriano as a 4 WAR player last year, only 1.4 the year before that, and 3.2 the year before that one. I'd say Soriano is a good bet to provide 2.5 WAR next year, and 2 WAR the year aftewards.
If you assume a win on the open market is around $4.5 million dollars, then it stands to reason that a player with 2.5/2 in the toolkit should get right at 2/$20. The Cubs, of course, are paying more than that, but would gladly eat enough of the contract to get that number to 2/$10 for a prospective trade partner.
So, we've established that trading Soriano (and leaving the other team to pick up 2/10) provides the Cubs with about $10 million dollars of surplus value. What sort of prospect could that buy?
If we use this handy guide, we could get a B grade pitcher (by Sickels), or around a 75-100 pitching prospect in baseball (so think the bottom of the Top 200) list. For the Cubs, think a Dillon Maples or Pierce Johnson type (who are B-).
That's a greater return than I would have thought, at first; then I sort of realized how good of a player Soriano has really been. If you strip away his contract, he's been a very productive player (if overpaid). Similar talents on the market (Victorino, Hunter) have gotten bigger deals. Why shouldn't 2 years and 10 million for Soriano be worth a Pierce Johnson type?
If Soriano is worth a prospect in the global 150-200 range, that's about the 5-7 range for an average individual team. Domonic Brown would have been way more than that in 2011 (when he was the #4 prospect in baseball). However, Brown is injury-prone (he hurt his left knee again this year). He spent another unproductive third of a season at the major league level, and did not really dominate in AAA last year (although the IL is the pitcher's league). Brown plays a above-average defense in right, but is a hair below average in centerfield (where he'd presumably play for the Cubs).
All in all, I'd wager Brown is a prospect in the 75-100 range next year, if not a shade lower. That is slightly more expensive than Soriano is worth; however, you're paying for the upside that Soriano could provide (a 3.5 or 4.0 WAR season is easily in his capabilities), and getting a player that fits into the Phillies' tight budget. I'd say a Soriano for Brown swap works for both sides, and if we have to throw in a C-level prospect or two to make that happen, I'm very fine with that too.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Who Plays for the Cubs?
Let's take a look at the current 40-man roster:
Pitchers (21)
Scott Baker
Jeff Beliveau
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Shawn Camp
Lendy Castillo
Gerardo Concepcion
Rafael Dolis
Scott Feldman
Kyuji Fujikawa
Matt Garza
Carlos Marmol
Trey McNutt
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Arodys Vizcaino
Rob Whitenack
Travis Wood
Catchers (3)
Welington Castillo
Dioner Navarro
Steve Clevenger
Infielders (8)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Junior Lake
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins
Outfielders (7)
Tony Campana
David DeJesus
Brett Jackson
Dave Sappelt
Nate Scheirholtz
Jorge Soler
Alfonso Soriano
Matt Szczur
The first thing that jumps out to me is the sheer number of players not ready to contribute at the major league level. We've got a few injuries (Vizcaino, Garza, Baker, Feldman) and a few true prospects (Soler, Villanueva), and it really stretches our "effective roster" quite thin.
In the outfield, we currently are slated to send out Soriano in left, DeJesus in center, and Schierholtz in right. Sappelt and Campana are the likely candidates to be the 4th/5th OF, as Jackson is by FO edict destined to start the season repeating AAA. Soler and Szczur are both at least a year away, more for Soler.
There aren't any candidates in the outfield for dropping off the 40-man, but there are a few trade options. Both DeJesus and Soriano both have (in my estimation) a 25% chance of being traded before Opening Day. However, unless Jackson comes up to start in Center (I like the idea), they'd need to find another outfielder anyway. The FO's stance on Jackson kind of freezes up the outfield.
The infielder situation is similarly dire. You've got Valbuena, Castro, Barney, and Rizzo manning the 4 positions, with a contingency for Stewart to make the team. Lake, Watkins, and Villanueva are all far from contributing. Vitters is in the Jackson boat of being held back a year (another error, in my opinion). This situation affords no backups. If you think Stewart can play 3B productively, Valbuena can play multiple positions...but then you have to make room on the 40-man that you don't have for infielders. This is another area that the Cubs will have to change.
Catching gives you your first easy cut: Steve Clevenger. He's very likely to go unclaimed, so you can still have him for emergencies. He's the clear-cut number 3 catcher on the team. You need the roster spot, and I don't think there's any real difference between Clevenger and Brenly. This is an easy cut.
Pitching is where things get difficult. The following are locks to make the team (barring trades):
Scott Baker
Shawn Camp
Scott Feldman
Kyuji Fujikawa (what an awesome name)
Matt Garza
Carlos Marmol
Jeff Samardzija
Travis Wood
James Russell
The following will not make the team barring some huge shift:
Gerardo Concepcion (A-)
Alberto Cabrera (conversion to starter)
Michael Bowden (conversion to starter)
Lendy Castillo (AA)
Arodys Vizcaino (injury)
Rob Whitenack (AA)
Which leave the following in play:
Jeff Beliveau
Rafael Dolis
Trey McNutt
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
We've already established that the Cubs need at least one infielder, and I've identified what I believe is an extremely likely cut (Clevenger) to make up that room. If Soriano or DeJesus or both are traded, we need a replacement outfielder or two (depending on the Jackson edict) and it will come from one of the bottom two lists.
I think the most likely cuts at this point are Chris Rusin and Gerardo Concepcion. Rusin probably won't clear waivers, but he's got a shot. I don't think his upside is greater than, say, a Brooks Raley or Jeff Beliveau. Concepcion will clear waivers most likely, and I wouldn't be that sad if he didn't.
If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs break camp with the following roster:
LF DeJesus
CF Jackson/Campana
RF Schierholtz/Sappelt
1B Rizzo
2B Barney
SS Castro
3B Stewart
UTIL Valbuena
UTIL Undetermined Player Not on Current 40-man
C Castillo
C Navarro
13 position players
P Garza
P Samardzija
P Wood
P Feldman
P Raley
CL Fujikawa
SU Russell
SR Camp
SR McNutt
MR Rondon
LOOGY Beliveau
SR Undetermined Player Not on Current 40-man
12 pitchers
40: Villanueva, Soler, Concepcion, Cabrera, Bowden, Baker (15-day DL), Castillo, Dolis, Whitenack, Lake, Vitters, Watkins, Szczur, 0-2 returns from Soriano trade/spring training.
60-day DL: Vizcaino
Off the 40: Clevenger, Rusin
That gives a spot or two to leeway, depending on the return from a Soriano/DeJesus/Garza trade, a spring training shocker, or if Vizcaino doesn't need to go on the 60-day.
It's fun to guess, but I'm sure free agency will do something to change this immeasurably.
Pitchers (21)
Scott Baker
Jeff Beliveau
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Shawn Camp
Lendy Castillo
Gerardo Concepcion
Rafael Dolis
Scott Feldman
Kyuji Fujikawa
Matt Garza
Carlos Marmol
Trey McNutt
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Arodys Vizcaino
Rob Whitenack
Travis Wood
Catchers (3)
Welington Castillo
Dioner Navarro
Steve Clevenger
Infielders (8)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Junior Lake
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins
Outfielders (7)
Tony Campana
David DeJesus
Brett Jackson
Dave Sappelt
Nate Scheirholtz
Jorge Soler
Alfonso Soriano
Matt Szczur
The first thing that jumps out to me is the sheer number of players not ready to contribute at the major league level. We've got a few injuries (Vizcaino, Garza, Baker, Feldman) and a few true prospects (Soler, Villanueva), and it really stretches our "effective roster" quite thin.
In the outfield, we currently are slated to send out Soriano in left, DeJesus in center, and Schierholtz in right. Sappelt and Campana are the likely candidates to be the 4th/5th OF, as Jackson is by FO edict destined to start the season repeating AAA. Soler and Szczur are both at least a year away, more for Soler.
There aren't any candidates in the outfield for dropping off the 40-man, but there are a few trade options. Both DeJesus and Soriano both have (in my estimation) a 25% chance of being traded before Opening Day. However, unless Jackson comes up to start in Center (I like the idea), they'd need to find another outfielder anyway. The FO's stance on Jackson kind of freezes up the outfield.
The infielder situation is similarly dire. You've got Valbuena, Castro, Barney, and Rizzo manning the 4 positions, with a contingency for Stewart to make the team. Lake, Watkins, and Villanueva are all far from contributing. Vitters is in the Jackson boat of being held back a year (another error, in my opinion). This situation affords no backups. If you think Stewart can play 3B productively, Valbuena can play multiple positions...but then you have to make room on the 40-man that you don't have for infielders. This is another area that the Cubs will have to change.
Catching gives you your first easy cut: Steve Clevenger. He's very likely to go unclaimed, so you can still have him for emergencies. He's the clear-cut number 3 catcher on the team. You need the roster spot, and I don't think there's any real difference between Clevenger and Brenly. This is an easy cut.
Pitching is where things get difficult. The following are locks to make the team (barring trades):
Scott Baker
Shawn Camp
Scott Feldman
Kyuji Fujikawa (what an awesome name)
Matt Garza
Carlos Marmol
Jeff Samardzija
Travis Wood
James Russell
The following will not make the team barring some huge shift:
Gerardo Concepcion (A-)
Alberto Cabrera (conversion to starter)
Michael Bowden (conversion to starter)
Lendy Castillo (AA)
Arodys Vizcaino (injury)
Rob Whitenack (AA)
Which leave the following in play:
Jeff Beliveau
Rafael Dolis
Trey McNutt
Brooks Raley
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
We've already established that the Cubs need at least one infielder, and I've identified what I believe is an extremely likely cut (Clevenger) to make up that room. If Soriano or DeJesus or both are traded, we need a replacement outfielder or two (depending on the Jackson edict) and it will come from one of the bottom two lists.
I think the most likely cuts at this point are Chris Rusin and Gerardo Concepcion. Rusin probably won't clear waivers, but he's got a shot. I don't think his upside is greater than, say, a Brooks Raley or Jeff Beliveau. Concepcion will clear waivers most likely, and I wouldn't be that sad if he didn't.
If I had to guess, I'd say the Cubs break camp with the following roster:
LF DeJesus
CF Jackson/Campana
RF Schierholtz/Sappelt
1B Rizzo
2B Barney
SS Castro
3B Stewart
UTIL Valbuena
UTIL Undetermined Player Not on Current 40-man
C Castillo
C Navarro
13 position players
P Garza
P Samardzija
P Wood
P Feldman
P Raley
CL Fujikawa
SU Russell
SR Camp
SR McNutt
MR Rondon
LOOGY Beliveau
SR Undetermined Player Not on Current 40-man
12 pitchers
40: Villanueva, Soler, Concepcion, Cabrera, Bowden, Baker (15-day DL), Castillo, Dolis, Whitenack, Lake, Vitters, Watkins, Szczur, 0-2 returns from Soriano trade/spring training.
60-day DL: Vizcaino
Off the 40: Clevenger, Rusin
That gives a spot or two to leeway, depending on the return from a Soriano/DeJesus/Garza trade, a spring training shocker, or if Vizcaino doesn't need to go on the 60-day.
It's fun to guess, but I'm sure free agency will do something to change this immeasurably.
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