Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Anatomy of the 2012 Cubs

C     2.0 [1.2]
1B   2.0 [1.8]
2B   2.5 [2.5]
SS   2.5 [3.3]
3B   2.8 [0.9]
RF   2.7 [1.7]
CF   3.0 [1.0]
LF   2.5 [4.0]
C2 [0.5] [0.5]
O4 [0.5] [0.6]
O5 [0.5] [-2.1]
I5   [0.5] [0.7]
I6   [0.5] [0.0]
Position: 22.5 [16.0]

SP   4.5 [3.3]
SP   2.7 [2.1]
SP   2.0 [1.4]
SP   1.3 [1.2]
SP   0.6 [0.7]
RP   1.5 [0.7]
RP   1.0 [0.6]
RP   0.7 [0.2]
RP   0.5 [0.1]
RP   0.4 [0.1]
RP   0.2 [0.1]
RP   0.1 [0.0]
Pitching: 15.5 [10.5]

26.5 + 43 = 69.5 wins from 25-man roster

This makes sense, to me. This 25-man roster probably played 80% of all innings this year, so 26.5 * .8 = 21.2 wins, which when you add to 43 gives you 64 wins, within my tolerance for 61 actual wins. This of course assumes a complete replacement sum of 0 from our non-opening 25; this is a dubious proposition at the very best (and likely the main driver as to why we won 61 instead of 64 - our replacement pitching was embarassingly below replacement).

The main things I take from this is that the Cubs last year lacked an ace pitcher, a competent bullpen, a third baseman, a proper right and centerfielder, a third baseman, a 5th outfielder, and a 6th infielder. These are things we already knew, but now I can kind of order them by need:

1. Centerfielder
2. Third baseman
3. Ace Pitcher
4. Rightfielder
5. Ace reliever (closer)
6. #2 pitcher
7. #3 pitcher
8. Fireman reliever
9. Utility infielder
10. Utility outfielder

Though the 5th outfielder is technically the largest gap in WAR, I am assuming that replacement level players are plentiful (because they are).

In the next post, I'll see how the Cubs are addressing these 10 needs (if they are at all).


No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment